{"version":"equity-scenarios-1.0","reviewed":"2026-09-14","horizon":"2027-12-31","companies":[{"id":"vrt","ticker":"VRT","metricLabel":"EBIT","sensitivityMultiples":[20,28,35],"claimRangeMillion":316.4,"verdict":["Earnings performance and valuation sensitivity","盈利表现与估值敏感性"],"why":["The company is profitable; the gap between the base valuation scenario and the reference price is limited.","已实现盈利；基准估值情景与参考价之间的空间有限。"],"driver":["The base scenario needs $17.5bn CY2027 sales and a 23% GAAP-like operating margin: 25% sales growth from 2026 guidance midpoint, plus margin improvement. It is a research assumption, not company guidance.","基准情境需要2027年收入175亿美元、扣除折旧摊销及股权薪酬后的经营利润率23%：比2026年指引中值增长25%，同时改善利润率。这是研究假设，不是公司指引。"],"downside":["Delivery delays, weaker pricing or reversing customer advances can hurt profit and cash together. Acquiring UIG adds $1.45bn upfront cash plus up to $1.15bn contingent cash.","交付延迟、价格走弱或客户预付款回落，会同时影响利润和现金。UIG收购还需14.5亿美元首付及最多11.5亿美元或有支付。"],"next":["Track reported earnings, acquisition progress and financing effects against the stated scenarios. Valuation multiples are research assumptions; the bull scenario alone does not establish investment value.","跟踪披露盈利、收购进展及融资影响，并与现有情景对照。估值倍数属于本站研究假设；乐观情景本身不足以构成投资价值判断。"],"catalyst":["Q3 results expected October/November 2026 (date unconfirmed); UIG closing announced for Q4 2026. Check revenue against $3.65–3.85bn Q3 guidance and actual acquisition funding.","第三季业绩预计在2026年10–11月披露（日期未确认）；UIG预计第四季度交割。核对第三季收入是否达到36.5–38.5亿美元指引，以及实际收购融资。"],"price":{"value":241.49,"date":"2026-09-17 · regular-session close","source":"https://za.investing.com/equities/gs-acquisition-a-historical-data","note":["September 17 USD close of $241.49 agrees across Investing.com and StockAnalysis, checked September 18. MarketBeat lists $241.37; that $0.12 provider discrepancy remains. This is an attributed dated reference, not a live quote. Financial and share-count dates differ.","9月17日美元收盘价241.49，经9月18日核对Investing.com与StockAnalysis一致；MarketBeat列为241.37，仍有0.12美元的供应商差异。此为注明来源和日期的参考价，不是实时行情；财报与股数日期不同。"],"checked":"2026-09-18"},"facts":[{"label":["Actual outstanding Class A common","实际流通A类普通股"],"value":"384.988173 million","date":"2026-07-27","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674101/000162828026050609/vrt-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Cash + short-term investments","现金及短期投资"],"value":"$3,110.6 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674101/000162828026050609/vrt-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Debt principal","债务本金"],"value":"$2,967.2 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674101/000162828026050609/vrt-20260630.htm"},{"label":["UIG cash purchase price / maximum contingent cash","UIG现金首付／最高或有现金"],"value":"$1,450 / $1,150 million","date":"2026-09-02","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674101/000119312526379306/d472406d8k.htm"},{"label":["Net pension liability, carried forward as assumption","净养老金负债，仅按假设延用"],"value":"$76.5 million","date":"2025-12-31","source":"https://s205.q4cdn.com/554782763/files/doc_financials/2025/ar/Vertiv-2025-Annual-Report.pdf"}],"modelNote":["EV/EBIT after depreciation, amortization, rent and stock compensation. The dated price and mixed-date capital structure imply about 33.5× 2026 guided GAAP EBIT before UIG adjustments. Research multiples 20/28/35× stress contraction, normalization and a sustained premium. They are not observed peer medians.","采用扣除折旧、摊销、租金与股权薪酬后的EV/EBIT。有日期的股价及不同日期资本结构，对应收购调整前约33.5倍2026年指引GAAP经营利润。研究倍数20/28/35倍分别测试压缩、回归与高溢价持续，并非同行中位数。"],"bridgeNote":["Cash scenarios deduct UIG upfront, contingent reserves and $234.6m legacy acquisition consideration once. Debt stays $2,967.2m as an assumption; pension $76.5m is deducted separately. Preferred/NCI assumed absent. Shares rise to 395/398/402m, distinct from weighted EPS shares. The displayed range tests an additional $0–316.4m lease deduction because the reviewed Q2 report does not separately disclose the long-term finance/operating split. Current operating leases of $82.0m are disclosed in Note 8; the sensitivity range is not a verified bound on all lease obligations.","现金情境已一次性扣除UIG首付、或有支付准备及234.6百万美元旧收购对价；不再作为债务重复扣减。债务按假设维持2,967.2百万美元，另扣76.5百万美元养老金。假设不新增优先股或少数股权。未来股数395/398/402百万股，与EPS加权股数分开。展示区间另测试0–316.4百万美元租赁扣减，因为所核查第二季报告未单列长期融资／经营租赁拆分。附注8已披露流动经营租赁82.0百万美元；该敏感性区间不是全部租赁义务的已验证上限。"],"gaps":[["UIG terms disclose $1.45bn upfront cash at approximately 13× management-expected 2027 target EBITDA; this is not independently verified historical target earnings or a final purchase-price allocation. The model’s valuation multiples are scenario assumptions, not peer comparisons or consensus estimates.","UIG 条款披露14.5亿美元首付约对应管理层预期2027年标的 EBITDA 的13倍；该信息不构成独立核实的标的历史盈利或最终收购分摊。模型估值倍数为本站情景假设，不是同行比较或一致预期。"],["The Q2 report discloses $316.4m of long-term lease liabilities and $82.0m of current operating leases, but does not separately identify the long-term finance/operating split. The $76.5m pension deduction carries forward the December 2025 balance as an assumption. Future awards and acquisition outcomes remain scenario inputs.","第二季报告披露长期租赁负债316.4百万美元、流动经营租赁82.0百万美元，但未单列长期融资与经营租赁拆分。养老金扣减76.5百万美元为沿用2025年末余额的假设。未来奖励股及收购结果仍属情景输入。"]],"cases":[{"name":["Bear","熊情境"],"inputs":{"revenueMillion":14000,"multiple":20,"cashMillion":2993.5,"debtMillion":2967.2,"preferredMillion":0,"minorityMillion":0,"sharesMillion":395,"operatingMargin":0.18,"investmentsMillion":0,"otherClaimsMillion":76.5},"rationale":["Flat sales to the 2026 guidance midpoint despite the acquisition; 18% margin and multiple compression. Cash bridge (USDm): 3110.6 + H2 2026 owner cash 700 + 2027 owner cash 1317.5 - 1450 UIG - 0 earnout reserve - 234.6 legacy consideration -150 dividends -300 allocation = 2993.5. 2027 owner cash = (EBIT-150 interest)×75% + D&A 400 - capex 560.0 - working capital 300. This includes researcher reserves, not a cash forecast.","收入与2026指引中值持平，尽管包含收购；利润率18%，倍数压缩。 现金桥梁（百万美元）：3110.6＋2026下半年所有者现金700＋2027年所有者现金1317.5－1450收购款－0或有支付准备－234.6旧对价－150分红－300其他资本安排＝2993.5。2027所有者现金＝（EBIT－150利息）×75%＋折旧摊销400－资本开支560.0－营运资金占用300。其中包含研究者准备金，不是现金预测。"],"calculated":{"extraClaimsMillion":316.4,"low":{"operatingProfitMillion":2520,"enterpriseValueMillion":50400,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":50033.4,"equityValueMillion":50033.4,"valuePerShare":126.66683544303798,"changePercent":-47.547792685809775,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":4787.7575},"high":{"operatingProfitMillion":2520,"enterpriseValueMillion":50400,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":50349.8,"equityValueMillion":50349.8,"valuePerShare":127.46784810126583,"changePercent":-47.21609669085021,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":4771.9375}}},{"name":["Base","基准情境"],"inputs":{"revenueMillion":17500,"multiple":28,"cashMillion":3507.25,"debtMillion":2967.2,"preferredMillion":0,"minorityMillion":0,"sharesMillion":398,"operatingMargin":0.23,"investmentsMillion":0,"otherClaimsMillion":76.5},"rationale":["25% sales growth, 23% margin versus 2026 GAAP guidance about21.1%; growth and leverage must both deliver. Cash bridge (USDm): 3110.6 + H2 2026 owner cash 900 + 2027 owner cash 2206.25 - 1450 UIG - 575 earnout reserve - 234.6 legacy consideration -150 dividends -300 allocation = 3507.25. 2027 owner cash = (EBIT-150 interest)×75% + D&A 500 - capex 700.0 - working capital 500. This includes researcher reserves, not a cash forecast.","收入增长25%，利润率23%，高于2026年GAAP指引约21.1%；增长与经营杠杆必须同时兑现。 现金桥梁（百万美元）：3110.6＋2026下半年所有者现金900＋2027年所有者现金2206.25－1450收购款－575或有支付准备－234.6旧对价－150分红－300其他资本安排＝3507.25。2027所有者现金＝（EBIT－150利息）×75%＋折旧摊销500－资本开支700.0－营运资金占用500。其中包含研究者准备金，不是现金预测。"],"calculated":{"extraClaimsMillion":316.4,"low":{"operatingProfitMillion":4025,"enterpriseValueMillion":112700,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":112847.15000000001,"equityValueMillion":112847.15000000001,"valuePerShare":283.5355527638191,"changePercent":17.410887723640368,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":3427.3525},"high":{"operatingProfitMillion":4025,"enterpriseValueMillion":112700,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":113163.55,"equityValueMillion":113163.55,"valuePerShare":284.330527638191,"changePercent":17.74008349753238,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":3416.0525000000002}}},{"name":["Bull","牛情境"],"inputs":{"revenueMillion":21000,"multiple":35,"cashMillion":3813.5,"debtMillion":2967.2,"preferredMillion":0,"minorityMillion":0,"sharesMillion":402,"operatingMargin":0.26,"investmentsMillion":0,"otherClaimsMillion":76.5},"rationale":["50% growth and26% margin exceed current guidance; strongest execution plus preserved premium required. Cash bridge (USDm): 3110.6 + H2 2026 owner cash 1100 + 2027 owner cash 2887.5 - 1450 UIG - 1150 earnout reserve - 234.6 legacy consideration -150 dividends -300 allocation = 3813.5. 2027 owner cash = (EBIT-150 interest)×75% + D&A 650 - capex 945.0 - working capital 800. This includes researcher reserves, not a cash forecast.","收入增长50%、利润率26%，均超过当前指引；需要最强执行并维持高溢价。 现金桥梁（百万美元）：3110.6＋2026下半年所有者现金1100＋2027年所有者现金2887.5－1450收购款－1150或有支付准备－234.6旧对价－150分红－300其他资本安排＝3813.5。2027所有者现金＝（EBIT－150利息）×75%＋折旧摊销650－资本开支945.0－营运资金占用800。其中包含研究者准备金，不是现金预测。"],"calculated":{"extraClaimsMillion":316.4,"low":{"operatingProfitMillion":5460,"enterpriseValueMillion":191100,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":191553.4,"equityValueMillion":191553.4,"valuePerShare":476.50099502487564,"changePercent":97.31707111055347,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2760.730857142857},"high":{"operatingProfitMillion":5460,"enterpriseValueMillion":191100,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":191869.8,"equityValueMillion":191869.8,"valuePerShare":477.2880597014925,"changePercent":97.64299130460576,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2751.6908571428576}}}],"sources":[{"id":"q2","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674101/000162828026050609/vrt-20260630.htm","title":"Q2 2026 SEC financial report","date":"2026-07-29","locator":"cover; balance sheet p4; cash flow p5; notes 6 debt,8 lease/current liabilities,9 contingent consideration,12 EPS"},{"id":"release","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674101/000162828026050323/q22026exhibit991vrt07292026.htm","title":"Quarterly earnings release and guidance","date":"2026-07-29","locator":"FY2026 guidance; pp12 and15 GAAP reconciliation; cashflow pp7/12"},{"id":"annual","url":"https://s205.q4cdn.com/554782763/files/doc_financials/2025/ar/Vertiv-2025-Annual-Report.pdf","title":"Vertiv 2025 annual report","date":"2026","locator":"printed p40 no warrants; pp92-94 pension, options,RSUs and performance awards"},{"id":"uig","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674101/000119312526379306/d472406d8k.htm","title":"Vertiv UIG acquisition Form 8-K","date":"2026-09-02","locator":"Item1.01: $1450m cash upfront,$1150m maximum contingent cash, Q4 expected close"},{"id":"uig-ir","url":"https://investors.vertiv.com/news/news-details/2026/Vertiv-Announces-Agreement-to-Acquire-UtilityInnovation-Group-to-Accelerate-Time-to-Power-for-AI-Data-Centers/default.aspx","title":"Vertiv UIG acquisition announcement","date":"2026-09-02","locator":"transaction 13x expected target 2027 EBITDA; not VRT comparable trading multiple"}],"additionalReviewDate":"2026-09-20","additionalReviewScope":["UIG terms, Q2 lease disclosures and dated pension assumption","UIG条款、第二季租赁披露与养老金假设时点"]},{"id":"cohr","ticker":"COHR","metricLabel":"EBIT","verdict":["Cash conversion and valuation assumptions","现金转化与估值假设"],"why":["FY2026 operating cash flow of $79.5m was below $1.103bn in capital expenditure; valuation remains sensitive to cash conversion and the assumed multiple.","2026财年经营现金流7,951万美元，低于11.03亿美元资本开支；估值对现金转化与倍数假设敏感。"],"driver":["At a fixed28× EBIT, the central case is about$208 versus the September17 reference$295.98. It assumes $10.6bn CY2027 revenue and15% operating margin, about1.6× Q4 FY2026 annualized EBIT. These values depend on the stated operating and valuation assumptions.","固定28倍EBIT时，中间情境约208美元，低于9月17日参考价295.98美元。该情境假设2027自然年收入106亿美元、经营利润率15%，约为2026财年末季经营利润简单年化的1.6倍。估值结果取决于所列经营与估值假设。"],"downside":["FY2026 operating cash was only $79.5m against $1.103bn capex. Inventory, yields or slower shipments can hurt cash and margins together; all three operating scenarios hold the multiple at 28× EBIT. Multiple risk is shown separately in the valuation sensitivity analysis.","2026财年经营现金仅7,951万美元，资本开支却为11.03亿美元。库存、良率或交付放缓可能同时挤压现金与利润；三个经营情境均固定使用28倍EBIT，倍数变化的风险单独列于估值敏感性分析。"],"next":["Track operating cash flow, capital expenditure and working-capital changes in subsequent reports. Compare price with explicitly stated valuation assumptions; the bull scenario alone does not establish investment value.","跟踪后续报告的经营现金流、资本开支与营运资金变化，并将价格与明确列示的估值假设比较；乐观情景本身不足以构成投资价值判断。"],"catalyst":["Next quarterly results expected in calendar Q4 2026; exact earnings date unconfirmed. Compare sales with Q1 FY2027 guidance of $2.2–2.4bn.","下一次季报预计在2026年第四季度，确切财报日期未确认；核对收入是否达到2027财年第一季22–24亿美元指引。"],"price":{"value":295.98,"date":"2026-09-17 · regular-session close","source":"https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cohr/history/","note":["September 17 USD close from StockAnalysis, cross-checked with StockInvest on September 18. This is a dated closing-price reference, not a live quote. Operating assumptions retain their September 14 review date.","9月17日美元收盘价来自StockAnalysis，于9月18日与StockInvest交叉核对。这是有日期的收盘参考价，不是实时行情；经营假设保留9月14日审阅日期。"],"checked":"2026-09-18"},"facts":[{"label":["Actual common shares","实际流通普通股"],"value":"195.832246 million","date":"2026-08-10","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Cash + short-term investments","现金及短期投资"],"value":"$1,987.018 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Debt principal + finance leases","债务本金及融资租赁"],"value":"$3,271.715 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Preferred stock remaining","剩余优先股"],"value":"$0; converted shares already included","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Minority book value, not fair value","少数股权账面值，非公允价值"],"value":"$334.705 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Operating cash flow / capital expenditure","经营现金流／资本开支"],"value":"$79.514 / $1,102.909 million","date":"FY2026 ended 2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm"},{"label":["Outstanding options / unvested RSU units","未行权期权／未归属 RSU 单位"],"value":"376,536 / 2,406,714","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm"}],"bridgeNote":["Start with June 30 cash/investments of $1,987.018m and debt including finance leases of $3,271.715m; August 10 actual shares are a different date. Exclude $606.378m restricted cash. Preferred conversion and NVIDIA placement are already included. Note 15 does not provide a current minority fair-value estimate: the deductions below are explicit sensitivity assumptions. Operating rents remain in EBIT, so operating lease liabilities are not deducted again.","以6月30日现金及投资1,987.018百万美元、含融资租赁债务3,271.715百万美元为起点；8月10日股数日期不同。排除606.378百万美元受限现金。优先股转换和NVIDIA入股均已计入。附注15未提供少数股权当前公允价值估计，下列扣减仅为明确的敏感性假设。经营租金留在EBIT内，不再重复扣除经营租赁负债。"],"modelNote":["CY2027 income bridge: GAAP gross margin minus R&D, SG&A and other operating costs, retaining depreciation/amortization and SBC. Q4 FY2026 actual anchors:38.5% gross margin,10.6% R&D,13% SG&A,12.4% EBIT. All operating cases fix28× EBIT; the separate20/28/36× table changes only the multiple. A mixed-date $59.4bn EV proxy divided by the Q1 guidance GAAP-like annualization gives about45×;28× stresses about38% compression. The proxy subtracts the previous quarter$192m GAAP/adjusted gap from guidance—it is not management GAAP guidance, a peer multiple or a justified fair price.","2027自然年经营桥梁：GAAP毛利率减研发、销售管理及其他经营费用，保留折旧、摊销与股权薪酬。2026财年末季实际锚点：毛利率38.5%、研发10.6%、销售管理13%、经营利润率12.4%。三个经营情境均固定28倍EBIT；另用20/28/36倍只测试倍数。不同日期的约594亿美元EV估算，除以第一季指引的GAAP近似值年化，约45倍；28倍测试约38%压缩。此近似值从指引扣除上一季1.92亿美元GAAP／调整口径差额，并非管理层GAAP指引、同行倍数或公允价格证明。"],"gaps":[["Valuation multiples are research scenarios, not a completed peer-valuation study or sourced consensus. FY2026 Note 15 reports NCI book value of $334.705m, without a current fair-value estimate; modeled deductions are sensitivities, not reported fair value.","估值倍数为本站情景假设，不是已完成的同行估值研究或有来源的一致预期。2026财年附注15披露少数股权账面值334.705百万美元，未提供当前公允价值估计；模型扣减为敏感性假设。"],["Note 17 discloses outstanding options and unvested awards. The August 31 Form 8-K adds performance awards with service and performance conditions through 2030. These are disclosed arrangements, not shares already issued; future vesting remains conditional.","附注17已披露未行权期权及未归属奖励。8月31日8-K另披露截至2030年的服务及业绩条件奖励；这些属于已披露安排，不是已发行股份，未来归属仍取决于条件。"],["Note 14 classifies the NVIDIA price-protection provision as equity, not a derivative liability. The reviewed 10-K and subsequent August 31 8-K do not establish a later settlement result; potential cash or share settlement remains conditional, rather than a confirmed payment.","附注14将 NVIDIA 价格保护条款列为权益，而非衍生负债。本轮核查的10-K及后续8月31日8-K未能确认期后结算结果；潜在现金或股票结算仍属条件事项，不是已确认付款。"]],"cases":[{"name":["Bear","熊情境"],"inputs":{"revenueMillion":8200,"multiple":28,"cashMillion":1687.018,"debtMillion":3771.715,"preferredMillion":0,"minorityMillion":350,"sharesMillion":207,"operatingMargin":0.11,"investmentsMillion":0,"otherClaimsMillion":0},"rationale":["Revenue below annualized Q1 midpoint9.2bn; GM37% deteriorates1.5pp from Q4, RD/SGA deleverage to11%/14%; remaining othercost1%. Cashconversion only partially recovers. EBIT margin=37% gross-11% R&D-14% SG&A-1% other. Other cost1% assumes easing from Q4~2.5%. July2026–December2027 independent OCF/capex/netdebt assumptions (USDm):1000/1800/500. Derived cash=1987.018+OCF-capex+netdebt=1687.018. Capex annualized remains at/above FY26$1103m; even bear OCF assumes recovery. No full working-capital forecast proves this funding feasible.","收入8200百万美元；经营利润率＝毛利率37%－研发11%－销售管理14%－其他费用1%。其他费用1%假设较末季约2.5%下降。2026年7月至2027年12月经营现金／资本开支／净债务变化分别独立假设为1000/1800/500百万美元；计算期末现金＝1987.018＋经营现金－资本开支＋净债务变化＝1687.018百万美元。资本开支年化不低于2026财年的1103百万美元；即便熊情境也假设经营现金恢复。这不等于完整营运资金模型已证明融资可行。"],"calculated":{"extraClaimsMillion":0,"low":{"operatingProfitMillion":902,"enterpriseValueMillion":25256,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":22821.303,"equityValueMillion":22821.303,"valuePerShare":110.24784057971014,"changePercent":-62.751591127876836,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2275.0913214285715},"high":{"operatingProfitMillion":902,"enterpriseValueMillion":25256,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":22821.303,"equityValueMillion":22821.303,"valuePerShare":110.24784057971014,"changePercent":-62.751591127876836,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2275.0913214285715}}},{"name":["Base","基准情境"],"inputs":{"revenueMillion":10600,"multiple":28,"cashMillion":1687.018,"debtMillion":3271.715,"preferredMillion":0,"minorityMillion":700,"sharesMillion":203,"operatingMargin":0.15,"investmentsMillion":0,"otherClaimsMillion":0},"rationale":["Revenue15.2% above annualized Q1 midpoint9.2bn; GAAP GM39.5% improves1pp vs Q4, RD10.5%, SGA13%, othercost1%; EBIT15% is derived, not selected independently. EBIT margin=39.5% gross-10.5% R&D-13% SG&A-1% other. Other cost1% assumes easing from Q4~2.5%. July2026–December2027 independent OCF/capex/netdebt assumptions (USDm):2100/2400/0. Derived cash=1987.018+OCF-capex+netdebt=1687.018. Capex annualized remains at/above FY26$1103m; even bear OCF assumes recovery. No full working-capital forecast proves this funding feasible.","收入10600百万美元；经营利润率＝毛利率39.5%－研发10.5%－销售管理13%－其他费用1%。其他费用1%假设较末季约2.5%下降。2026年7月至2027年12月经营现金／资本开支／净债务变化分别独立假设为2100/2400/0百万美元；计算期末现金＝1987.018＋经营现金－资本开支＋净债务变化＝1687.018百万美元。资本开支年化不低于2026财年的1103百万美元；即便熊情境也假设经营现金恢复。这不等于完整营运资金模型已证明融资可行。"],"calculated":{"extraClaimsMillion":0,"low":{"operatingProfitMillion":1590,"enterpriseValueMillion":44520,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":42235.303,"equityValueMillion":42235.303,"valuePerShare":208.05567980295567,"changePercent":-29.706169402339466,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2227.4513214285716},"high":{"operatingProfitMillion":1590,"enterpriseValueMillion":44520,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":42235.303,"equityValueMillion":42235.303,"valuePerShare":208.05567980295567,"changePercent":-29.706169402339466,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2227.4513214285716}}},{"name":["Bull","牛情境"],"inputs":{"revenueMillion":13000,"multiple":28,"cashMillion":1787.018,"debtMillion":2771.715,"preferredMillion":0,"minorityMillion":1000,"sharesMillion":206,"operatingMargin":0.18,"investmentsMillion":0,"otherClaimsMillion":0},"rationale":["Revenue41.3% above annualized Q1 midpoint9.2bn; GAAP GM41.5% improves3pp vs Q4, RD10%, SGA12.5%, othercost1%; EBIT18% needs utilization/mix and is not guidance. EBIT margin=41.5% gross-10% R&D-12.5% SG&A-1% other. Other cost1% assumes easing from Q4~2.5%. July2026–December2027 independent OCF/capex/netdebt assumptions (USDm):3300/3000/-500. Derived cash=1987.018+OCF-capex+netdebt=1787.018. Capex annualized remains at/above FY26$1103m; even bear OCF assumes recovery. No full working-capital forecast proves this funding feasible.","收入13000百万美元；经营利润率＝毛利率41.5%－研发10%－销售管理12.5%－其他费用1%。其他费用1%假设较末季约2.5%下降。2026年7月至2027年12月经营现金／资本开支／净债务变化分别独立假设为3300/3000/-500百万美元；计算期末现金＝1987.018＋经营现金－资本开支＋净债务变化＝1787.018百万美元。资本开支年化不低于2026财年的1103百万美元；即便熊情境也假设经营现金恢复。这不等于完整营运资金模型已证明融资可行。"],"calculated":{"extraClaimsMillion":0,"low":{"operatingProfitMillion":2340,"enterpriseValueMillion":65520,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":63535.303,"equityValueMillion":63535.303,"valuePerShare":308.4238009708738,"changePercent":4.20427088684161,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2248.4491785714285},"high":{"operatingProfitMillion":2340,"enterpriseValueMillion":65520,"equityBeforeFloorMillion":63535.303,"equityValueMillion":63535.303,"valuePerShare":308.4238009708738,"changePercent":4.20427088684161,"requiredOperatingProfitMillion":2248.4491785714285}}}],"sources":[{"id":"10k","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm","title":"Coherent FY2026 Form 10-K","date":"2026-08-14","locator":"Cover: August 10 outstanding shares; p54 balance sheet; p55 income statement; p58 cash flow; Note8 debt; Note9 leases; Note14 preferred and NVIDIA placement; Note15 NCI; Note17 awards; Note19 EPS; Note22 subsequent facility"},{"id":"release","url":"https://www.coherent.com/content/dam/coherent/site/en/documents/investors/financial-releases/2026/august-12/earnings-release-fy26-q4.pdf","title":"Quarterly earnings release and guidance","date":"2026-08-12","locator":"p3 Q1 FY2027 business outlook; not full-year guidance"},{"id":"photonlink","url":"https://ir.coherent.com/events/event-details/coherent-photonlinktm-launch","title":"photonlink","date":null,"locator":"Official IR event listing, September21,2026"},{"id":"aug-psu","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000119312526375462/d110649d8k.htm","title":"Coherent performance-based incentive awards Form 8-K","date":"2026-08-31","locator":"Items 5.02 and 8.01: August 27 awards, performance and service conditions through 2030; not price-protection settlement"}],"sensitivityMultiples":[20,28,36],"claimRangeMillion":0,"additionalReviewDate":"2026-09-20","additionalReviewScope":["FY2026 cash flow, NCI, awards and price-protection terms; August 31 incentive disclosure","2026财年现金流、少数股权、奖励与价格保护条款；8月31日激励披露"]},{"id":"nbis","ticker":"NBIS","metricLabel":"Adjusted EBITDA","verdict":["Financing and delivery risk","融资与交付风险"],"why":["The contribution of business growth to per-share value depends on financing costs, dilution and delivery progress.","业务增长对每股价值的贡献，取决于融资成本、股权稀释与交付进度。"],"driver":["H1 statements disclose $37.49bn remaining performance obligations, but only 36% is expected within 24 months to June 2028. This is not 2027 revenue or cash available to shareholders. A September 8 Palantir partnership adds a distribution route after integration, but its announcement gives no contracted revenue amount.","半年报披露374.9亿美元剩余履约义务，其中36%预计在截至2028年6月的24个月内确认。这不等于2027年收入，更不是可分给股东的现金。9月8日Palantir合作在集成后提供新的客户渠道，但该公告没有给出合同收入金额。"],"downside":["New debt, pre-funded warrants, share issuance and GPU replacement can absorb business growth. Customer prepayments explain most H1 operating cash and cannot be treated as recurring free cash.","新债、预付权证、增发和GPU更新可能吸收经营增长。客户预付款解释了上半年大部分经营现金，不能当成持续自由现金。"],"next":["Monitor commissioned capacity and revenue contribution, capital expenditure and cash consumption, actual ATM issuance, and convertible conversion or cash settlement. These are future operating and capital-structure outcomes.","关键跟踪指标包括新增产能投运及收入贡献、资本开支与现金消耗、ATM 实际发行数量，以及可转债转换或现金结算；这些属于未来经营与资本结构变化。"],"catalyst":["Next quarterly filing and every financing 6-K: revenue-producing capacity, capex, unrestricted cash, ATM issuance and conversion terms.","下一份季报及每次融资6-K：核对实际产生收入的产能、资本开支、非受限现金、ATM增发及转换条款。"],"price":{"value":223.9,"date":"2026-08-19 · time unspecified","source":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-pricing-of-upsized-private-offering-of-5-0-billion-of-convertible-senior-notes","note":["Historical Nasdaq last sale cited in the issuer’s financing announcement; exact time is not supplied. Not the latest close. No percentage upside is published.","公司融资公告引用的历史Nasdaq成交价，未提供确切时间，不是最新收盘价。这里不发布上涨空间。"]},"facts":[{"label":["Actual Class A + B common shares","A类与B类实际普通股"],"value":"271.855218 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm"},{"label":["Pre-funded warrant shares, additional","另外的预付权证对应股数"],"value":"21.065936 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm"},{"label":["Unrestricted cash","非受限现金"],"value":"$8,042.1 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm"},{"label":["Debt carrying value","债务账面值"],"value":"$8,545.7 million","date":"2026-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm"},{"label":["August new notes / exchanged shares","8月新债／换股"],"value":"$5,750 million / approximately 15.8 million shares","date":"2026-08-24","source":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-closing-of-private-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-with-aggregate-gross-proceeds-of-approximately-5-75-billion"},{"label":["Five-year Class A issuance authorization; excludes Class C; not shares issued","五年A类股发行授权；基数不含C类股；非已发行股数"],"value":"≤20%","date":"2026-08-26","source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926101076/tm2624077d1_ex99-1.htm"}],"bridgeNote":["The funding scenario assumes full drawdown of the July $775m facility and uses August estimated net proceeds of $5,680m. Added to June cash, this gives $14,497.1m before subsequent operating/investing flows; it is not reported cash available today. The reviewed H1 note confirms the facility agreement, not full drawdown. The $800m debt exchange adds shares, not cash. Restricted cash, pre-funded warrants and previously raised NVIDIA cash cannot be added twice. Both June notes have100m assumed remaining principal after exchange. Contractual accrued principal at December31,2027 is112.269399m +109.584153m; coupon is separate. This does not resolve all convertible claims.","资金情景假设7月775百万美元融资额度全额提款，并采用8月估计净融资额5,680百万美元。加上6月现金合计14,497.1百万美元，未计入后续经营与投资现金流；不是已披露的当前可用现金。所核查半年报附注确认融资协议，未确认全额提款。800百万美元换债增加股数，不增加现金。受限现金、预付权证与此前NVIDIA融资不可重复加回。 两期6月债券按换股后各剩1亿美元本金计算，2027年12月31日合同累计本金分别为112.269399及109.584153百万美元，票息另计；这并未解决全部可转债索偿。"],"modelNote":["Working-capital and funding test, not P/E: with a $2bn minimum cash buffer, cumulative July 2026–December 2027 OCF/capex assumptions of $12/30bn, $22/40bn and $34/50bn imply additional funding needs of $5.50bn, $5.50bn and $3.50bn before new financing. These are researcher stresses, not management guidance or secured funding.","先做资金测算，不套PE：若保留20亿美元最低现金，2026年7月至2027年12月累计经营现金／资本开支分别假设为120/300、220/400、340/500亿美元，新增融资前的资金需求分别为55.0、55.0、35.0亿美元。这些是研究者压力假设，不是管理层指引或已获得融资。"],"gaps":[["Reviewed H1 statements disclose 12,729,493 ATM shares sold through June 30. August closing documents disclose approximately 15.8m shares under debt-exchange agreements, but do not provide a precise consolidated share count after all subsequent transactions. The September Palantir release does not quantify contracted revenue.","已核查半年报披露截至6月30日通过 ATM 出售12,729,493股。8月交割文件披露换债协议涉及约1,580万股，但未提供覆盖全部后续交易的精确总股数。9月 Palantir 公告未量化合同收入。"],["The June 2029/2031 contracts support principal accrual, while the H1 maturity table differs by $12.5m for each original tranche without explaining the presentation. This page presents funding stress scenarios, not an NBIS per-share target. Future conversion timing, settlement choices and option time value remain modeling assumptions.","2029／2031年6月债券契约支持本金累计计算，但半年报到期表对两期原债券各差1,250万美元，未解释该展示差异。本页提供资金压力情景，不发布 NBIS 每股目标价；未来转换时点、结算方式和期权时间价值仍属模型假设。"]],"cases":[],"sources":[{"id":"h1","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm","title":"Nebius H1 2026 financial statements","date":"2026-08-12","locator":"Unaudited H1 statements; notes 4, 8, 12, 13, 14, 16"},{"id":"q2","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094568/tm2622968d1_ex99-1.htm","title":"Q2 2026 SEC financial report","date":"2026-08-12","locator":"Outstanding Shares; consolidated financial highlights"},{"id":"letter","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094568/tm2622968d1_ex99-2.htm","title":"Nebius Q2 2026 shareholder letter","date":"2026-08-12","locator":"pp3-6 capacity/deals; pp9-11 financial update/funding"},{"id":"aug-price","url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-pricing-of-upsized-private-offering-of-5-0-billion-of-convertible-senior-notes","title":"Nebius August 2026 note pricing","date":"2026-08-19","locator":"Net proceeds; initial conversion rates; Nasdaq last sale August 19; accreted principal"},{"id":"aug-close","url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-closing-of-private-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-with-aggregate-gross-proceeds-of-approximately-5-75-billion","title":"Nebius August 2026 note closing","date":"2026-08-24","locator":"Opening paragraphs: full options exercise and concurrent exchange"},{"id":"mar-close","url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-closing-of-private-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-with-aggregate-gross-proceeds-of-approximately-4-3-billion","title":"Nebius March 2026 note closing","date":"2026-03-20","locator":"Closed original principal 2587.5+1750; 2033 option still unexercised then; H1 note12 confirms same amounts"},{"id":"sep-price","url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-pricing-of-upsized-private-offering-of-2-75-billion-of-convertible-senior-notes","title":"Nebius September 2025 note pricing","date":"2025-09-10","locator":"7.2072 shares/$1000; original principal and option; maturity accretion 115%"},{"id":"jun-price","url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-private-placement-of-1-billion-in-aggregate-principal-amount-of-convertible-notes","title":"Nebius June 2025 note terms","date":"2025-06-02","locator":"500m each; 19.4363 shares/$1000; 120%/125% maturity claims"},{"id":"jun29-indenture","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925055197/tm2516825d1_ex99-4.htm","title":"jun29-indenture","date":"2025-06-02","locator":"Indenture datedJune5; Section1.01 original/conversionrate; ExhibitC1200 maturity;1119/1145 horizon bracketing"},{"id":"jun-close","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925056817/tm2517269d1_6k.htm","title":"jun-close","date":"2025-06-05","locator":"The Notes:500m original each and120%/125% maturity"},{"id":"jun31-indenture","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925055197/tm2516825d1_ex99-5.htm","title":"jun31-indenture","date":"2025-06-02","locator":"Public form datedJune5; Sections1.01/2.03 original500m and19.4363 conversion; ExhibitC1093 atDec5,2027/1113 atJun5,2028/1250 maturity; confirmed byJune5closing6K"},{"id":"jun-subscription","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925055197/tm2516825d1_ex99-2.htm","title":"jun-subscription","date":"2025-06-02","locator":"WHEREAS purchase price100.00% of original principal; Section2"},{"id":"agm-2026","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926101076/tm2624077d1_ex99-1.htm","title":"Nebius AGM results","date":"2026-08-26","locator":"Items 13–14: five-year issuance authorization and pre-emption rights; vote counts are not current shares outstanding."},{"id":"palantir-2026","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926105749/tm2624958d1_ex99-1.htm","title":"Palantir and Nebius sovereign AI partnership","date":"2026-09-08","locator":"Opening partnership description: integration precedes access by eligible Palantir customers; no contracted revenue amount is stated in this release."}],"sensitivityMultiples":[],"claimRangeMillion":0,"additionalReviewDate":"2026-09-20","additionalReviewScope":["H1 ATM issuance and July facility; August note closing and September partnership disclosure","半年报ATM发行与7月融资额度；8月债券交割及9月合作披露"]}],"screening":{"recorded":"2026-09-14","timezone":"UTC","directorySnapshot":"2026-09-11","scope":"Existing US-listed directory only; metadata and source-availability triage, not a market-wide investment screen.","rule":"Three existing watchlist names selected as worked examples across cloud, cooling and optics. BE/SNDK are retrospective mechanisms only. Other names await price, capitalization and valuation review; absent coverage is not rejection.","counts":{"directory":69,"modelSamples":3,"historicalReferences":2,"withRevenueSource":30},"rows":[{"id":"snps","ticker":"SNPS","group":"design","status":"not-valued","businessSource":{"url":"https://investor.synopsys.com/news/news-details/2023/Synopsys.ai-Unveiled-as-Industrys-First-Full-Stack-AI-Driven-EDA-Suite-for-Chipmakers/default.aspx","title":"Synopsys.ai EDA suite announcement","published":"2023-03-29","period":"Historical product-role announcement; not a current earnings review"},"revenueSource":"https://news.synopsys.com/2026-08-26-Synopsys-Posts-Financial-Results-for-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026","revenuePeriodEnd":"2026-07-31"},{"id":"cdns","ticker":"CDNS","group":"design","status":"not-valued","businessSource":{"url":"https://www.cadence.com/en_US/home/resources/factsheets/cadence-design-systems-inc-fs.html","title":"Cadence corporate facts and product offering","published":null,"period":"Issuer business-role evidence; 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