About this research
Research methodology
Follow the evidence, including what it cannot establish.
Sources and dates
Prefer issuer filings, earnings releases and official government material. Link each material claim to its source and locator. Publication date, observation period and review date are different; a recent release can contain old measurements.
Facts, interpretation and constraints
Label management forecasts and editorial interpretations separately from reported results. Revenue growth does not prove scarcity. A supplier's report does not establish a market-wide trend. We do not assign validated shortage scores or buy rankings.
From a theme to an investment case
Verify relevant company exposure, normalize earnings, compare valuation and market expectations, and identify catalysts and contrary evidence. An interesting constraint does not establish an attractive stock price. Historical cases must use information available at the decision date and include unsuccessful candidates.
Updates and corrections
Selected SEC filings and company financials are checked on a daily schedule; runs may be delayed or fail. Research conclusions are updated after editorial review. Treat each note as a dated snapshot, not current market status. Material corrections should record the affected claim, revised conclusion and correction date. Source links can change; this site links to source documents rather than maintaining an immutable document archive.
Investment research checklist
A framework for assessing evidence, not an investment score or a buy recommendation.
- Business model and profit drivers: customers, revenue sources and cost structure.
- Evidence scope and reporting period: dated sources, products and geography.
- Facts and assumptions: distinguish disclosures, estimates and evidence limitations.
- Counterevidence: conditions that weaken or invalidate the investment thesis.
- Valuation and downside: earnings, funding requirements and adverse scenarios.
- Monitoring and risk: review triggers, potential losses and portfolio concentration.
If evidence or valuation is still missing, keep researching or observing. Record the unresolved question and the next disclosure to check before committing money.
Custom valuation scenarios
Earnings per share and valuation multiples
- Annual diluted EPS
- Earnings attributable to each share, accounting for potential dilution. Use a full-year assumption, not a single quarter or revenue per share.
- P/E multiple
- The price investors pay for one unit of annual earnings. A lower multiple can reflect lower growth expectations or higher risk; it does not necessarily indicate undervaluation.
Hypothetical example: earnings growth and multiple contraction
No real company, market price or forecast is used. Assume the same currency and share basis throughout.
Starting EPS 5 × P/E 20 = price 100. Later EPS 6 × P/E 15 = price 90. Earnings grow 20%, but the price falls 10% as the multiple shrinks.
This is arithmetic, not a return forecast; dividends and fees are excluded. The lesson does not fill in the company calculator below.
No house target price or default forecast. For positive-earnings common stocks: assume the annual diluted EPS and P/E the market will apply in 12 months. Use the same currency and security basis for price and EPS; ADR ratios matter.